30-Year Analysis of Youth Crime Trends Shows Overall Crime Rate Remains Low
Researchers Say Fears of New Crime Wave are Premature

Chicago, IL, November 16, 2006 - While the Federal Bureau of Investigation reported that violent crime in the United States increased 2 percent from 2004 to 2005, a new report from Chapin Hall Center for Children at the University of Chicago shows that recent increases are small when taken in the context of crime rates over the last three decades and that predictions of a coming wave of youth crime are premature.

The report analyzed adult and juvenile arrest rates based on the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports and found that youth crime remains at or near a 30-year low. While the FBI releases yearly crime figures from local jurisdictions throughout the country, the Chapin Hall report is the first study to calculate national estimates of juvenile crime from 1975-2005.

Statistics released in September by the FBI revealed that, for the first time in a decade, violent crime rose between 2004 and 2005. A jump in juvenile arrests, including an 11 percent increase in robbery arrests and a 7 percent increase in weapon offices, has given rise to fears that the country will soon face a surge in youth violence.

However, while increases in these crime categories are certainly a concern to communities, total arrests of juveniles actually decreased 3 percent in 2005. Many categories of juvenile arrests, such as forcible rape, aggravated assault and burglary, decreased as well.

"Mayors, police officials and news reports have focused on small increases in a few crime categories to sound a nationwide alarm about growing crime," said Jeffrey Butts, Chapin Hall research fellow and one of the authors of the report. "Some concerns are valid, but it is far too soon to be predicting a coming crime wave."

The Chapin Hall report, co-written with Howard Snyder from the National Center for Juvenile Justice in Pittsburgh, found that the recent one-year increase in violent crime would have to be repeated annually beyond the year 2020 for crime rates to climb back to where they were in the mid-1990s.

"The most recent crime data show that America's decade-long crime drop is probably coming to an end," Butts said. "But it is too early to be predicting a coming storm of violent crime, and it is inappropriate to imply that future increases are inevitable."

The report calls for crime prevention strategies that focus on at-risk youth between the ages of 15 and 24. The most effective prevention strategies, according to the report, rely on community-based programs that work with young people who are disconnected from school, work, and families, particularly those from distressed and impoverished neighborhoods.

The report will be released at a public forum at 9 a.m. on November 16, at the Urban Institute in Washington, D.C. Butts and other juvenile justice experts will discuss recent youth crime trends and policy options for responding to crime and violence.

A copy of the study can be found at www.chapinhall.org

Chapin Hall Center for Children is a nonpartisan policy research center dedicated to bringing rigorous research and innovative ideas to policymakers, service providers, and funders working to improve the well-being of children. Located at the University of Chicago, Chapin Hall now celebrates twenty years as a leading source of research and expertise about the needs of children and the service systems designed to meet those needs.

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