Chicago's Child Population Shifting to City's Outer Edges

New Demographic Study Shows New Pockets of Child Poverty

Chicago, IL, January 24, 2007 - A new study reports that neighborhoods around Chicago's Loop and lakefront have lost substantial numbers of families with children and that concentrations of these families have increased in the city's northwest, southwest, and southeast sides. An increase in the number of children living in poverty in these outlying communities has paralleled increases in the general population, the study shows.

With these demographic shifts, many families with children in poverty now living near the city's outer edges may find it more difficult to secure neighborhood services as schools and agencies adjust to the changes, according to the study, which was conducted by Chapin Hall Center for Children at the University of Chicago.

In general, according to the study, the areas that have grown the most in the past 15 years have fewer slots available in after-school programs and fewer licensed child care services for young children. The report, commissioned by the Chicago Department of Children and Youth Services (CYS) to give Head Start providers and other organizations offering child care, education, and after-school services for children better planning data, also shows that city's early childhood programs and schools have begun to respond to these demographic changes.

Still, according to the report, the city faces considerable challenges in adjusting to the movement of its families with children. Most of the census tracts in communities with growing populations of children have fewer than seven licensed childcare slots for every 100 children ages zero to five, while several areas with shrinking child populations have as many as 50 slots for every 100 children. Similarly, growing communities had fewer than six after-school program slots for every 100 youth, while those with declining youth population had almost one for every youth, the study reports.

The study uses a variety of data sources not provided by the United States Census Bureau and is the first of its kind for a major metropolitan area in the country.

Communities that gained the most children overall included Belmont Cragin and Brighton Park - each gaining more than 10,000 between 1990 and 2005, while communities such as West Town lost the largest number of children, more than 10,000. Although the study predicts that the overall population of children and youth will remain steady through 2010, it forecasts that some communities, such as Montclare and West Elsdon will grow as much as 40 percent by 2010 while others, such as Riverdale, will shrink by that amount.

Communities experiencing the largest growth in numbers of children in poverty from 1990 to 2005 include Rogers Park, West Ridge, Irving Park, Austin, South Lawndale, Chicago Lawn, and South Chicago. The number of children in poverty decreased most in some communities with the highest concentrations of child poverty during the past decade, among them Washington Park, Englewood, West Town, and North Lawndale. The city's historically poor communities, such as those located in the city's near west and south sides, continue to have large numbers of poor children.

Changes in Chicago's racial and ethnic composition appear to be driving the demographic changes the city is experiencing, the report suggests, with the highest growth in Chicago's 0-17 population occurring in predominantly Hispanic communities located on the southwest side. Communities such as Brighton Park, Archer Heights, and West Lawn, have witnessed six percent annual growth in the child and youth population since 1990 according to the report.

Many predominantly African-American communities, largely in the near south and near west sides, have steadily lost families with children since 1990. A significant portion of this loss occurred before the public housing transformation began in 1999.

By 2010, the study shows, Hispanics will surpass African-Americans as the largest racial-ethnic group of Chicago children. Projections in the report indicate that in 2009, 39 percent of 0-17 year-olds will be Hispanic, while 38 percent will be African-American.

Although the percentage of African-American children in each community has remained steady from 1990 to 2005, and is expected to remain steady through 2010, higher fertility rates among Hispanics and immigration into the city have steadily driven up the percentage of Hispanic children and youth in Chicago communities.

"These trends are driven by many forces and raise complex challenges as service systems mobilize their workforce and adapt their facilities to serve poor families," said Robert M. Goerge, the study's lead author. "This study illustrates the importance of city governments, such as Chicago's, proactively securing information for its decision-making on the provision of human services. The pace of change demands that we go beyond the U.S. Census data because that information is not timely."

A copy of the study can be found on the Chapin Hall web site at www.chapinhall.org.

Chapin Hall Center for Children is a nonpartisan policy research center dedicated to bringing rigorous research and innovative ideas to policymakers, service providers, and funders working to improve the well-being of children. Located at the University of Chicago, Chapin Hall now celebrates twenty years as a leading source of research and expertise about the needs of children and the service systems designed to meet those needs.

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